Monitoring of Redlines for Covid-19 - Update no 11 - 11th June 2021

On 11th June 2021 the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) and the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (INSA) release report No.11 on monitoring the red lines for COVID-19. The report includes the various indicators described in the Red Lines document, namely the 14-day incidence and the transmissibility index (Rt), national and by health region. From this report, the following points are highlighted:

  • The number of cumulative new SARS-Cov-2 / COVID-19 infections per 100 000 inhabitants over the last 14 days was 83, reflecting an increasing trend at national level.
  • The effective reproduction number (Rt) is above 1 at the national level (1.07) in all mainland health regions but North. Lisbon and Tagus Valley (LVT) region presents the most accentuated growth trend (Rt = 1.12).
  • Considering these growth rates, the number of days to achieve the 14-day cumulative incidence rate threshold of 120 cases per 100,000 inhabitants is 15 to 30 days for the national level. The Lisbon and Tagus Valley is already above that threshold.
  • The daily number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units in mainland Portugal showed an increasing trend, corresponding to 29% of its defined critical value of 245 occupied beds.
  • At the national level, the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive tests was 1.6 %, under the defined threshold of 4 %. The total number of tests performed in the last seven days has decreased.
  • The proportion of confirmed cases with delayed notification was 7.5 %, remaining below the 10 % threshold.
  • In the last seven days, 89 % of confirmed SARS-Cov-2/ COVID-19 cases were isolated in less than 24 hours after notification, and 83 % of their contacts were traced and quarantined.
  • Sequencing data from May 2021 indicate that the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7 or first identified in the United Kingdom) represented 88.4 % of all SARS-Cov-2/ COVID-19 cases in Portugal.
  • Until June 9th, a total of 111 cases of Beta variant (B.1.351 or first identified in South Africa) was identified. There is community transmission of this variant.
  • Until June 9th, a total of 142 cases of P.1 variant (first identified in Manaus, Brazil) were identified. There is community transmission of this variant.
  • Until June 9th, 92 cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2 lineage first identified in India) were identified. There is community transmission of this variant and this is better established in LVT region.
  • The analysis of various indicators suggests an epidemiological situation compatible with moderate community transmission and reduced pressure on the health system. Given the known delay between incident cases and ICU admission, the increasing tendence of the latter indicator observed in last days, should impose even more precaution in monitoring incidence and impact indicators, especially among the population with still not complete vaccination scheme.

 

Strategy of lifting containment measures in the context of controlling Covid-19 – Council of Ministers Resolution 70-B/2021 dated 4th June 2021  Download in informal English here