Óscar Felgueiras, from ARS Norte and Faculty of Sciences of the University of Porto, presented a proposal for indicators to be used in a de-confinement plan, suggesting new levels of risk at national level:
Level 5 – high – above 240 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in 14 days
Level 4 – high – above 120
Level 3 – medium – above 60
Level 2 – low – above 30
Level 1 – very low – up to 30
In addition, he proposes an additional indicator: percentage growth at 14 days. If the incidence is at a high level but is growing by 30%, then the situation enters the maximum risk level (level 5 instead of 4). If the growth is 60% and there are more than 60, it goes from level 3 to 5.
As for the local risk levels he proposed that the risk level of each municipality should take into account the situation of the surrounding municipalities. In other words, the level of each municipality would not only depend on its specific situation, but also on the severity of the surrounding municipalities.
For example, in October last year, applying this logic, the situation of maximum risk would be much wider in the territory than the one we have seen.
The proposed decontrol plan, evaluated every two weeks
The plan presented by Raquel Duarte, from ARS Norte and former Secretary of State for Health, was based on an evaluation of activities taking into account, for example, the risk of disrespect for the rules, the age groups involved and the potential for agglomeration. The various sectors must open at what they designated as level 4 and only two weeks later, after a new analysis, the restrictions can be reduced to level 3. Some examples:
Planning done at national level with general rules such as distance, mandatory use of a mask. Start with pre-school and children and only two weeks later, dropping to level 3, opening 1st cycle, 2nd cycle and “so on”.
Keep telework whenever possible, lagged times and increased testing. Start with work without contact with the public and only two weeks later if go down to level 3 by opening workplaces with contact with the public but without physical contact. Only two weeks later reassess to open work with individual physical contact.
Open with 25% of total occupancy
Taxis and TVDEs
Open with two-thirds capacity and front seats only used by the driver
Open at level 4 only with sale to the window. If it is possible to go down to level 3, two weeks later, they will be able to open but with a limited number of people.
Maintain the current situation with takeaway sales. Two weeks later, evaluate the possibility of opening a terrace service, with a maximum of 4 people per table
Continue with limitation to the household (level 4) and two weeks later evaluate the descent to level 3 that would allow the association of the household with six other people in the same socio-family ‘bubble’
De-confinement suggested by technicians will not have precise dates
The health minister also recalls that the technicians did not propose a de-confinement with specific dates, but with compliance with indicators. “No presentation pointed to precise dates, but to specific levels of action in the light of the situation,” she said.
As Expresso had advanced in the weekend edition, the de-confinement plan on the table of the Council of Ministers does not have a defined timetable, it will depend on the fulfilment of the criteria.