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Mathematician and Professor Henrique Oliveira talks about the role of confinement, the prospects for the coming weeks and the effect of vaccination.

Henrique Oliveira, a mathematician and professor at the Instituto Superior Técnico, considers that the confinement is taking effect, especially since the schools closed, stressing that the Rt (transmissibility index) is below 1 across the country.

“We are reaching the peak in Lisbon and Vale do Tejo and the numbers are very favorable,” said the professor, adding that in this respect he is more optimistic than the Minister of Health, Marta Temido.

However, Henrique Oliveira argues that caution is necessary because the pressure on healthcare will remain, even after the peak is exceeded.

REDUCTION IN THE NUMBER OF FATALITIES

According to projections, the number of fatalities will start to fall, after a very high peak of deaths by Covid-19 has been reached.

“Lethality went up immensely in the month of January and went up a lot in layers above 80 years old,” he said in an interview with SIC Notícias.

The professor believes that the number of deaths will start to fall very quickly and, from the end of February, it is estimated that Portugal will be at the same level as Christmas, “if all goes well”.

The calculations point to a much smaller number of fatalities between 15 and 22 March. It will be at that time that it will be considered whether or not to open the country.

“With the January and February mortality levels, it would be very imprudent to open in an uncontrolled way”, underlines Henrique Oliveira.

CONFINEMENT IS HALTING VARIANTS

Henrique Oliveira says that the confinement is being very effective, even with regard to the transmission of new variants of the virus. There is still no data on the Manaus variant, but there is already scientific evidence on the British and South African variants.

“All foreign variants, English, South African and even Manaus, are not being devastating in the face of this confinement. They are being dominated”, says the professor.

VACCINATION STILL WON’T HAVE AN IMPACT IN FEBRUARY

Vaccination in February will not yet have an effect on the numbers, says Henrique Oliveira. However, if it is possible to vaccinate 80% of people over 80 during February and March, the protection will be noticeable significantly, allowing the month of April to be an opening month.

“I want to show a sign of optimism, we will have summer. From June onwards, we will be in a very favourable situation, we will be in a kind of temporary group immunity”, says the professor, remembering that this is only possible if contacts are reduced and the use of a mask continues to be widespread.

In a positive perspective, which requires some prudence, tourism will be able to plan activities in the summer, says the mathematician.

We want society to open up and be able to recover from there without limits”, he concluded.

“For the pandemic to be eradicated, it must be eradicated in the European Union and on a global scale, which is a huge effort”, underlined the prime minister.

The Prime Minister also underlined that to speed up the vaccination process, the industry has to increase the vaccine production capacity. António Costa stressed that the pharmaceutical companies have already committed to fulfill this objective.

For the head of government, it is essential to vaccinate the majority of the population in order to return to normality: “We will only return to normality in our lives when we are all vaccinated or, at least, 70% of the population, reaching group immunity”.

“It is essential that each one waits serenely for his or her turn to be vaccinated”, he recalled with the indication that the call for the vaccine will arrive via SMS or letter.

The Prime Minister also said today that one thing is the turmoil of political debate and another is reality, praising the joint work of the National Health Service and the private and social sectors in combating covid-19.

This position was transmitted by António Costa at the end of a visit to the new CUF Tejo Hospital, in Alcântara, during which he attended the vaccination process of health professionals in the private sector and was accompanied by the Minister of Health, Marta Temido.

“I want to leave a word of thanks here, because one thing is the turmoil of political debate and another thing is reality. Since March we have been in contact, we have worked together, and the National Health Service (SNS) and private hospitals and of the social sector, or of the Armed Forces, have been mobilized whenever necessary to respond to this pandemic situation “, maintained the leader of the executive.

Speaking after brief speeches by the chairman of the CUF group’s board of directors, Salvador de Mello, and the Minister of Health, António Costa stressed that the country is experiencing the most critical moment in the fight against the epidemic, being also “the moment when this collaboration between sectors proved to be more necessary and, equally, more effective was demonstrated “.

“We have 53 agreements across the country with institutions from the private and social sectors, 13 of which, specifically, for the treatment of covid-19 patients. At the time when each bed is absolutely essential, the existence of an additional 300 beds made available by the private sector on the whole it is very important “, stressed the executive leader.

The prime minister also pointed out that there will be more than 700 beds made available by the private sector, reinforcing “a set of conventions” for the care of non-covid-19 patients who need treatment.

School closures, which led to less mobility, and the more restrictive measures imposed by the Government helped a faster drop in the transfer rate, show estimates from the Covid19 Insights project

The closure of schools, and the consequent decrease in mobility, and the more restrictive measures imposed by the Government from mid-January helped a faster drop in the transmissibility rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making the effect of the current confinement very close to the effect achieved with the confinement made in March and April last year. Within a week it was possible to reduce the transmissibility of the virus by 35% to 40%. It is still early to relax, but this greater compliance with the measures is beginning to reveal some impact on the covid-19 numbers. Although hospitalizations and deaths remain high.

“To evaluate a containment, what matters is to measure its effect. The effectiveness of a confinement is seen by the drop in the rate of transmissibility. This rate is the product of two elements: contact rate – mainly represented by mobility – and the likelihood of transmission – represented by the characteristics of the virus and the protective barriers we use ”, explains to PUBLIC Pedro Simões Coelho, coordinator of the Covid19 Insights project, an initiative by NOVA IMS and COTEC.

To measure the effect of the current confinement, the reference was the average speed of the drop in transmissibility of the virus in March and April last year. “We estimate that at the beginning of this confinement, this reduction in the transmissibility of the virus took place at a speed that would be 30% of the speed that was made in March and April. In other words, it was 30% of the effect achieved in the first confinement”, says the specialist, referring to a period that goes from the second week of January to the closing of schools. From that date on, “this effect began and has been progressively intensified and at that date we estimate that the effect of this confinement is about 90% of that of March / April “.

What has changed to achieve this result, even though since the beginning of January there has already been some reduction in the mobility that people have assumed, anticipating the confinement decreed by the Government? “Until January 17th, the presence in workplaces was still very strong. There was already some drop compared to the reference level – average mobility in January and February 2020, when there was still no pandemic – from -11% to -26%, but now the drop is more than 40% ”, begins by explaining .

It is this change that now allows for more favorable estimates than those obtained two weeks ago. Thus, the peak of prevalence is expected to happen these days, with about 182 thousand active cases. This figure should drop to 160 thousand on 7 February. Also for that day, the scenarios point to the existence of 5900 people with hospitalized covid, of which 825 are in intensive care units. The maximum number of hospitalizations will have been reached on day 1 and the maximum in intensive care is likely to happen by the end of the week. As for deaths, the maximum will have been reached on 30 January with about 300 deaths per day.

But the country is still far from breathing relief, even though the Rt (transmission risk) is slightly below 1. According to estimates, this should only drop below 0.8 in the second half of this month and it will be for that reason that the security barrier of 5000 new daily cases should be reached. “The value of 50 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants has been used by many as a barrier below which it is possible to have an adequate traceability of the cases and to make an identification of the transmission chains. And, consequently, we have to do this as soon as possible”, states Pedro Simões Coelho.

The president of the Scientific Council of NOVA IMS also points out that the estimated number of hospitalizations, especially in intensive care, shows how the National Health Service (SNS) is close to its maximum capacity, since the same criteria of previous phases were used of the pandemic, estimates would point to higher numbers of patients hospitalized at around 200 in intensive care.

“This is one of the reasons why confinement needs to be continued in this severe way for some time. It is essential to maintain or intensify [the drop in transmissibility] for some time to avoid this situation of rupture and try to prevent this excess mortality from continuing ”, he reinforces, stating that if there is capacity to control transmission chains and lower numbers it will be possible to progressively suspect. But always evaluating this impact so that a new growth of contagions can be stopped.

The Judicial Police of Leiria detained, on Monday morning, a man suspected of killing a Brazilian citizen, on January 31, in the area of ​​Caldas da Rainha.

The 40-year-old victim was known to the suspect and was said to have been assaulted with a piercing object in the chest area, “following disagreements at his residence”, informs the Judiciary Police, in the statement sent this Tuesday to the newsrooms, in which it reports the suspicion of a crime of qualified homicide. The citizen, of Brazilian nationality, was still rescued but ended up dying in the hospital.

“The knowledge of the facts was acquired by the PSP, which activated the intervention of the Judiciary Police. Investigative investigations were carried out immediately, and relevant evidence was collected, which led to the arrest of the suspect,” the note reads.

The detainee, 49 years old Portuguese, a logger by profession, will be presented to the court for questioning and enforcement of coercion measures.

The Minister of Health, Marta Temido, made the weekly status of the evolution of the vaccination plan against Covid-19, after the information meeting with the plan’s task force.

Portugal today received 86 580 vaccines from Pfizer / Biontec, totaling about 483 thousand doses from this consortium, and 19 200 from Moderna, of which 10 200 were to have been delivered last week, but were received yesterday, said the Minister, adding that «two deliveries from Moderna and three from Pfizer are scheduled for February”.

Of the 86 500 doses received today, “23 400 were sent to the autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira, of which 11700 were for each region”.

“Two batches of the newly approved AstraZeneca vaccine are expected to be delivered,” said the Minister, adding that deliveries scheduled for February 9 and 19 total 200,000 vaccines, out of a total of 6.8 million in the contractual doses.

The Minister also referred that the European Medicines Agency approved “the conditional authorization for placing on the market for the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, and Portugal has the expectation of receiving two batches, on 9 and 19 February, of approximately 200 thousand vaccines, of a total of 6.8 million doses contracted ».

340 thousand vaccinated

Marta Temido affirmed that “340 thousand inoculations have already been carried out, being 270 thousand of first doses and 70 thousand of second doses”.

Health professionals from the National Health Service and from the social and private sectors, professionals and residents in residential structures for the elderly, for people with disabilities and the national network of integrated continuous care, and dialysis centers were inoculated.

Vaccination in care homes

“Vaccination of the first dose is completed in homes and the like, except in those where there are active outbreaks. For this week, the plan includes vaccination in homes where the outbreaks were extinguished” she said.

At the same time, “vaccination of priority health professionals from the private and social sectors and some from the public sector will continue.”

There is also “the vaccination of people over 80 years old without comorbidities and the vaccination of people between 50 and 80 years old with one of the four comorbidities identified as being of particular risk of hospitalization or death”, “a total of 900 thousand people, who will be contacted for vaccination ‘.

The second doses will also be administered to health professionals who have already spent adequate time, as well as in homes and the like, said the Minister.

Convocation process

The President of the Shared Services of the Ministry of Health, Luís Goes Pinheiro, presented the way people will be summoned for vaccination, stressing that this “is a new and complex process, which is being tested”, starting with the first inoculations by this via on the 3rd.

The main means will be the call for an SMS with information that you are scheduled to be vaccinated on such a day, at so many hours, in such part, asking that the answer is yes or no.

If the person answers no or does not answer within the given time, a new SMS will be sent with a new date proposal. If the answer is no or there is no answer to the second message, it will be treated as a rejection.

This user will be transferred to the health department, who will either repeat the sending of sms or contact her in another way, the last possibility being the sending of a letter.

On the eve of the scheduled day, the user will receive a new SMS reminding him, to reduce absenteeism.

If there is an unfolding of the vaccination for places other than the health units, another SMS will be sent with the address.

The second dose will be scheduled when taking the first, and a solution is being developed that allows immediate scheduling, but later communication to the user.

The Minister of Health also referred to the episodes of disrespect for the vaccination plan, condemning these cases and stressing that “this is a process of collective interest that cannot suffer weaknesses”.

STATE OF EMERGENCY

STATEMENT BY THE STATE AND PRESIDENCY MINISTER MARIANA VIERA DA SILVA

State and Presidency Minister Mariana Vieira da Silva presented a set of new measures to combat the covid-19 pandemic at a press conference of the Council of Ministers this Thursday.

The Minister announces that all rules and restrictions remain “broadly” in force, but that others have been added. These are the rules and restrictions:

• The suspension of teaching activities continues until 5 February and on 8 February “a period of distance learning begins”.
• Limitation to travel outside the territory by any means for Portuguese citizens.
• Reinstatement of control of persons at land borders.
• – The possibility for NHS health establishments to exceptionally hire medical and nursing graduates from abroad for up to one year.

Schools will remain closed until 5 February. Classes will start again on the 8th, but at home, as in the first confinement. The Minister of State and Presidency also confirmed the suspension of travel out of Portugal for the next 15 days.

“The situation is very serious. In recent days there has been an increase in cases and deaths,” said Mariana Vieira da Silva. The press conference was also attended by Education Minister Tiago Brandão Rodrigues, who confirmed that schools would remain closed until 5 February.

On the following Monday, 8 February, classes will resume, but at home, and that the rules that were approved in July 2020 will apply. The government will “maintain therapeutic support and additional measures for students with special needs” as well as meals for students in the A and B brackets. “Yesterday alone, 20,000 meals were provided by the schools,” the minister said. With the return of school from a distance, the children of essential services workers will have their schools open, as is currently the case. “On average, these days we had two thousand students in the host schools”, explained Tiago Brandão Rodrigues. Local early childhood intervention teams and child and youth protection committees will also continue to operate.

On the preparation of distance learning, the minister says that work has been done in this direction and has used the example of the teleschool, in the “RTP Memória” channel.

Day care centres, said Mariana Vieira da Silva, will continue to be closed for the next fortnight. With regard to exams and assessment tests, the minister of education assumed that there were still no set dates and that a final decision was dependent on the evolution of the pandemic.

Measures will be re-evaluated every 15 days to determine whether there is a possibility of reopening classes to some students.

On Carnival day, the minister did not anticipate whether there would be a day-off for the Civil Service, but said that there would not be the usual celebrations.

The Minister of Education explains that online classes start for all levels of education. “The three days of the Carnival break, the 15th, 16th and 17th of February are days of teaching activities”. During the Easter holidays, at least 25 and 26 March “will be days of teaching activities”. “At the end of the school year” there will also be an adjustment.

Eduardo Cabrita, Minister for Internal Administration, announced that “by decision within the framework of a national strategy, the government will adopt a measure to limit travel abroad for the next 15 days of national citizens in order to protect national citizens and contribute to limiting contagion”. The restrictions apply to “air, water and land travel of national citizens in the next fortnight”, he added.

Eduardo Cabrita also said that the government would contribute to “the European decision to limit flights between risk areas throughout the European Union and to require testing and quarantine by articulated decision at European level,” without specifying countries.

The Minister of the Presidency said that the ban on citizens’ departure seemed to be a “good example” and explained that what is happening is a “border control”. “It is not a total closure of borders. It is an arrival check”.

She said “we are not in a position to ease any restrictive measures that exist” to justify why the government has decided to maintain the restrictions that already exist in this renewed state of emergency. Mariana Vieira da Silva also said that what the decree does is to empower the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Internal Administration to ban flights to countries. In other words, there is no fixed list of countries.

Humanitarian flights are part of the exceptions to the different circulation restrictions that have been defined, the minister said.

From mid-February, the government will assess “all measures, including the closure of schools”, the minister says. She also explains that the measures on land borders are “in all respects similar” to those in the first confinement.

Regarding the reinforcement for the SNS, the minister said that on foreign doctors the government estimates that there are around 160 doctors licensed abroad and that they meet conditions to be hired under this exceptional regime which aims to give the government the possibility of “hiring as many” professionals as possible.

The extra work of doctors, nurses and operational assistants is also better paid, explained.

The dark web offers fake vaccines with the names of different pharmaceutical companies, with prices ranging from $ 120 ($ 98.4) to over $ 1,000.

Although millions of people have already been vaccinated against covid-19 in rich countries, online fraud abounds with fake drugs that pose a major health risk, warned United Nations experts.

Internet fraud has skyrocketed because there is a demand that is not met by legal means and the rush or despair of some people to become immunized leads them to the illegal market, writes the agency Efe.

The dark web offers fake vaccines with the names of different pharmaceutical companies, with prices ranging from $ 120 ($ 98.4) to over $ 1,000.

These products, if any, may contain toxic material that is very harmful to health.

“I believe that many of these vaccines do not exist at all: It is a fraud in the strict sense. If you buy, you get nothing. It is a very easy way to try to make money,” Neil Walsh, the United Nations’ leading expert on cybercrime, told Efe. .

“And if you get something, you can be sure that it won’t be the real vaccine. At best it will be a placebo and at worst it may have harmful chemicals,” said Walsh, director of the agency’s cybercrime program. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNIDO).

Even in the unlikely event that it was a package of stolen authentic vaccines, it was certainly not kept in sanitary conditions for its use – like the cold chain – stressed the expert.

Walsh said he never encountered authentic vaccines in the Web underworld, although he acknowledged that his department needs the means to track all angles in depth.

Many of these frauds with fake or non-existent products are not just intended to earn a few hundred dollars, but to access something much more valuable: the personal data of buyers.

“One of the easiest products to sell in the cybercriminal world is personal data. If someone has your email, name, date of birth, address and phone number, all of that data together is very useful for criminals looking to take over your identity, “he said.

In addition to fraud, Walsh’s concern is misinformation and the negative effects that these fake drugs can have when generating doubts about authentic vaccines.

The advice: never buy these vaccines on the internet and use common sense.

“If neither governments were able to access vaccines or buy them, how did I find one on the net?”, summed up the UN expert.

The problem with counterfeit drugs predates the pandemic. UNODD has been denouncing for years that organized crime earns billions of dollars from selling fake drugs.

About 80% of these fraudulent drugs are sold in developing countries in Africa and Asia, the majority coming from Asia.

A 2017 World Health Organization (WHO) investigation found that one in 10 drugs in developing countries was counterfeit, which was behind the deaths of tens of thousands of people each year.

“Covid has given a boost to the fake drug market, not only because there is now more, but also because it has opened up new markets, like the western one, where you can earn a lot of money,” Angela Me, chief research and analysis researcher, explained to Efe at UNIDO.

The expert said that organized crime always takes advantage of the gap between supply and demand.

And he recalled that fraud with basic sanitary products proliferated in the spring because they were scarce, but as the legal industry covered the need, the decoys disappeared.

Reported by SIC Read here  

A GOOD NEWS STORY

Manuel, Manel for his parents, is now 9 months old. Or rather, 7. He was born at 29 weeks, on March 27, 15 days after his mother found out she was positive for covid-19. The father had been the first to test positive, but both felt good and had almost no symptoms. The SARS-CoV-2 virus that took the world in an unexpected way, also broke into the lives of Maria Lucena and her husband Francisco.

She was the first pregnant woman to become infected with the disease, when there was still almost no talk of cases in Portugal. “I was very anxious. It was right at the beginning of the pandemic, it was still unknown, even for doctors, and nobody knew very well how to deal with me and even what consequences it could have for the baby. The doctors said that, from the start, there would be no consequences. , but there were no certainties. I was afraid, very afraid, “she tells DN today with complete confidence and as if nothing had happened to him.

She says to be like this: “I am a calm, calm person. Until that time I had no problem, I always worked non-stop”. Then, from March 10, everything was different. “My husband had gone on a snow holiday in Switzerland with a group of friends in early March. When he returned he learned that a friend of the friends with whom they had been in a bar was positive. He had no symptoms, but he was worried and called the SNS line. They came home early to take the test. The next day we found out he was positive. ”

The life of Maria and Francisco, both 35 years old, changed here and suddenly. She went to her parents’ house, she felt good, but on the 13th she was tested and the result was also positive. “I had no symptoms, I realized that I had no smell or taste, but it was only for two or three days, which happens when I have a cold. At the time, not much was said about these symptoms”.

When she found out, she was anxious she confesses, then scared, for the reasons she already mentioned, but tried to stay calm for the baby. Everything got worse days later when she realized she was about to give birth. “I called my doctor and he immediately told me to attend the hospital. The baby was 30 weeks old, was being followed up in privately, but I had to go to Maternidade Alfredo da Costa [MAC], when there was still fear, an unknown virus was being dealt with. They touched me and realized that her waters had broken.”

At the time, Maria Lucena admits that she did not even know that premature babies, with Manel’s number of weeks, did not even have complete lung maturation. He had to take three injections to speed up this maturation, but on March 25, two days after being hospitalized, they had to cause her give birth, Manel had to be born by caesarean section. “I went into labour on the 26th, but I wasn’t doing the dilation, on the 27th I was tested and realized that I was getting a slight infection and decided to have a caesarean.”

The moment had come, but so different than I had imagined. At his side, there was no Francisco, who had previously both decided that he would be present at the birth, nor any other family member, the pandemic did not allow it. “I was always alone. It was not easy”, she says, and here the voice lets out her sadness.

Manel was born and she couldn’t even feel him on her chest, something that today any pregnant woman imagines she will feel, that she will be able to do. “They took him to neonatology. I only saw him 15 days after he was born”, but the fear that he might reach the positive world for covid-19 has not been confirmed. “They did two tests and it was always negative.”

Maria Lucena was well after the birth and was discharged almost immediately. “I felt great, I thought I was no longer positive, but I still was. I had the virus for over a month and they only let me see Manel when I was negative.” She went home, Manel stayed in the neonatology at MAC, where he says “he was treated very well”. It was worth it, as was “the nurses who were always with me. They had to change every four hours because of the protective suits. They were impeccable, if it weren’t for them it would have been even more difficult”, he says. More difficult because of the situation, the pandemic, the fact that I was unable to have visitors and because it was at the beginning. “There were a lot of doubts. Today I think it is different, although I think it is not good to be pregnant and have a baby in the middle of a pandemic.”

Maria and Francisco were not even able to enlist the help of their parents or friends to get used to the routine of being parents. “We were always alone, as if we were in a cocoon. We only went out when it was essential. Manel left after a week of being at home to go to the pediatrician, then he left again after two months, when he had already completed three, but as soon as the pediatrician said he could start going out, I started going around with him. ”

At that time, there was no anxiety, Maria was a mother and as she says, “I am a calm and peaceful person”. Today laughter jumps out when he pronounces the name of his first child: “Manel was a miracle in the year 2020.” When asked who he would be grateful for this year 2020, he says without hesitation: “Ao Manel”, for having fought too. “He looks great, he doesn’t even look like a premature baby. We try to live a very normal life within the restrictions and with all the care. Manel is at home, I already started working and we had to hire a lady to stay with him.”

Manel’s first Christmas was also not as they had imagined before. “The family cannot be all together, it was very different from what it used to be.” But 2020 ended and for 2021, Maria and her husband only wish that “Manel is well”. “I have hope for vaccines, but I don’t know if they are going to get everything resolved as quickly as we would like, but I hope that this pandemic has served to make people realize that we have to think more and more about the whole and not individually.”