The Overseas Situation Report Friday 24 December 2021
by Mike Evans
“Any change, even a change for the better, is always accompanied by drawbacks and discomforts.”
—Arnold Bennett
If I may start this report by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. This will be the last Overseas Report until the new year and whilst it would be good to end the year on a happy note the way the surge in Infections of the omicron variant is moving across the world makes it difficult to remain optimistic that life will eventually get back to some semblance of normality.
Throughout the year we have sought to bring you news and information from reliable and safe sources on what is the true situation regarding the Pandemic. Until we see the end we will continue to offer you an insight into what is happening around the world. As we enter the Christmas holiday period there is very little good news regarding the Covid 19 pandemic, however there is some heartening news courtesy of the Washington Post, coming out of Asia and especially Japan which we are delighted to bring you for this last edition before 2022.
In Japan, As the omicron variant surges around the world, Japan’s overall coronavirus cases and deaths have been plummeting. And no one seems to know exactly why.
Call it the hunt for a potential “X factor,” such as genetics, that may explain the trend and inform how Japan could deal with the next wave. While the new highly transmissible omicron variant has appeared in the country and experts suspect there is already some community spread, the overall transmission rate of the virus and coronavirus-related deaths in Japan have remained low.
“Honestly, we do not know the exact reason behind the sudden drop in covid deaths in Japan,” said Taro Yamamoto, professor of global health at Nagasaki University’s Institute of Tropical Medicine.
Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, Japan has had much lower rates of infection and death than in many Western countries, though there was a severe spike over the summer that overwhelmed hospitals.
Milder outbreaks — compared with the ravages of the virus in Europe and the Americas — were found in many Asian countries and were attributed often to a public accustomed to health measures from previous experiences with respiratory illnesses like the SARS and MERS epidemics. Researchers had also looked into genetics, diet and other factors that may have spared East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea from the high death tolls elsewhere. In Japan, researchers have also examined factors like weather, cyclical patterns in the spread of the virus, and potential past exposure to mild coronavirus variants that may have led to lower numbers of cases and death counts. Experts have identified potential genetic characteristics among the Japanese that may have led to a stronger immune system response to the coronavirus but said there needs to be more research to draw definitive conclusions.
Japan has now vaccinated most of its population and has widespread masking, which may explain the current low numbers. But so does neighbouring South Korea, where authorities are rescinding reopening plans because of a spike in infections and record numbers of serious and critical cases. And Japan has barely begun rolling out its booster shots, lagging other countries in the region, including South Korea.
“Obviously vaccination, masking and social distancing are surely factors, but those alone cannot explain it, especially when comparing the situation to South Korea,” Yamamoto said. “It is unclear yet whether there is a factor X that exists specific to Japanese or East Asian people, but in determining this we hope it can help us to understand and control the virus.”
In the past month, the official daily case count in Japan has ranged from about 60 to under 200 in a country of 127 million. There have been fewer than five coronavirus-related deaths recorded most days since early November.
Those numbers come with a caveat, and probably are an undercount of the pandemic’s true toll because of the lack of widespread testing, systemic contact tracing or vaccine passports, and delays in reporting of deaths from municipalities.
The lack of testing and the prevalence of asymptomatic cases means the government probably recorded one-fourth to one-tenth of the true number of cases until recently, when more testing options became available, according to Michinori Kohara, a researcher at the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Science who led a study published last month on underreported and asymptomatic positive cases. But even taking into account the underreporting, the number of cases and fatalities are a small fraction of the United States and many European countries.
Because of those limitations in detecting the true number of cases in the country, experts are paying attention to pressures on hospitals to gauge how the health-care system is faring, and whether there is a significant number of unreported coronavirus cases.
So far, they say, the situation has vastly improved since the spike in the summer, when hospitals were so overwhelmed that the government asked patients to treat themselves at home because there weren’t enough beds to accommodate them. Seriously ill infections are now under control, experts say.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Friday that the government aims to provide free and accessible testing starting at the end of this month. He has also called for a study of the government’s failures in responding to the spike this summer, including the cases where people died at home because the hospitals were full.
“There are some deaths and cases that may have been undercounted, but these numbers are not substantial enough to change the overall death rate or percentage,” Yamamoto said.
Japan has kept tight control on its frontiers, especially as the omicron variant emerged, though there is some doubt about the effectiveness of border control measures in preventing the spread of the virus. On Thursday, Japan recorded its first case of the omicron variant in someone who had not travelled. Japanese officials are watching the omicron variant closely, and there have been at least 159 confirmed cases of it. But the overall case count remains low: In the past week, the seven-day average of daily new cases in Tokyo was 25.
Taisuke Nakata, associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of Tokyo Faculty of Economics, led a team that tested six hypotheses to explain why the cases have plunged since the summer spike: 120-day cycle of outbreaks, people avoiding places with high infection risks, vaccinations, weather, herd immunity, or that Japan is seeing a low reproduction rate of the coronavirus.
They found that the final factor, which represents how many people are infected by one positive case, was most probably the only one at play. But they still could not explain why the reproduction rate was low, or how it stayed low even as the government lifted the “state of emergency” status in October and more people were out in society.
The low case counts in Japan are particularly confounding given the situation in South Korea, which had often experienced similar periods of ebbs and flows. “Many of us [in South Korea] are perplexed by how COVID-19 cases and deaths are approaching zero in the neighbouring country,” wrote Lee Duk-hee, professor of preventive medicine at Kyungpook National University in Daegu, in a blog post last month.
South Korea announced last week it would reimpose social distancing controls as the record spike of the coronavirus stymies the country’s reopening plans. The announcement came about 45 days after the government began its “living with covid-19” reopening plan.
Last week, South Korea’s daily caseloads surpassed 7,000 for the fifth time this month, with rising numbers of patients with serious or critical conditions. The health authorities have introduced at-home treatment for virus patients with light symptoms amid a shortage in hospital beds.
Some Japanese researchers have pointed to studies that found genetic or health conditions in Japan, including low prevalence of obesity. A study published this month by Japan’s Riken research institute, the country’s largest scientific research body, found that a genetic feature found in the white blood cells of up to 60 percent of Japanese people mounts an immune response to the coronavirus. The immune response was seen in 80 percent of the people with this genetic feature, and researchers found that it may explain one theory about Japan’s experience with the coronavirus.
This genetic feature, called HLA-A24, is common in East Asian countries and has been found in many countries that have had less severe experiences with the coronavirus, including Japan and Korea. But now, with the diverging experiences of Japan and Korea in the past two months, researchers said they hope to see more work done to find out more about what’s going on.
“Covid cases and deaths were low in Korea until now, but with the surge now and comparison with Japan, it would be interesting to examine what the immunity situation looks like now,” said Shin-ichiro Fujii, team leader at Riken’s immunotherapy laboratory.
Around the world the Scientific Community is learning more and more about the virus, and it can only be a matter of time until humanity can say that we have the “Cure”. Until that happens, we owe it to ourselves and our loved ones to protect each other as much as possible from the ravages this virus can cause.
Until the New Year Stay Safe.
Total Cases Worldwide – 277,687,256
Total Deaths Worldwide – 5,396,811
Total Recovered Worldwide – 248,911,553
Total Active Cases Worldwide – 23,378,892 (8.4% of the total cases)
Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 254,308,364
Information and Resources:
https://www.worldometer.info/coronavirus/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/22/japan-covid-omicron-falling-cases/
Pedro Ramos, Madeira’s Health and Civil Protection Secretary
Also on the same day, there were 30,927 travellers under monitoring by the health authorities. Monitoring is being carried out through the ‘MadeiraSafe’ app. There were also 409 people, who had contact with positive cases, being monitored by the health authorities of several Madeira municipalities and of Porto Santo.
There were 11 incidents as a result of the bad weather that the Region has been facing. They were small floods in urban areas, fallen rocks and fallen trees. The authorities have advised the population to pay attention to the weather forecast and to the following guidance issued by the Regional Civil Protection Service:
He explained that the strategies adopted about a month ago are showing results. He added that the Government had decided to move forward with a new package of measures, among them the extension of free tests from four to six per person each month. The Government has decided to bring forward the special measures planned for January 2nd-9th. According to the new rules, this period will start at 00h00 on 25th December (namely midnight 24th/25th).
“Since December 6, there has been an exponential growth in the proportion of probable cases of the Ómicron variant, having reached an estimated proportion of 46.9% on December 20”, refers to the Insa report, which adds that data obtained since last Wednesday (December 15) – the day on which the growth trend was projected until the end of the year – “has a large overlap with the projection”. This means that there is a consolidation for the analysis that Ómicron will be dominant in the country during this week. The prevalence of the variant will thus exceed 50% in the week of Christmas this week.
Cristina Siza Vieira, executive vice president of the Hotel Association of Portugal (AHP), recognizes to DN/Dinheiro Vivo that hotels in Portugal are feeling “a lot” of the effects of both the spread of Ómicron and the restrictions applied by the Portuguese government upon entry into the country. The effects are being felt “especially with foreign tourists. We were feeling a return of these tourists, especially in large urban centers, however the new measures are now in force, not only in Portugal, but throughout Europe, and in the world , plus the mandatory presentation of tests when entering and leaving Portugal and in various places, including hotels and restaurants, interrupted this principle of recovery”.
Meetings are scheduled for Monday and Tuesday with each of the intervention sectors provided for in the organization implemented in the region, resulting from the activation of the Civil Protection Emergency Plan, which coincide with the areas of influence of each Health Center Group (ACES) of the Regional Health Administration (ARS) of the Algarve.
The Consoada Solidarity Basket is an initiative promoted, in partnership, by the Municipality and the Parish Council of São Brás de Alportel, coordinating entities of the Local Platform for Food Aid, which is headquartered in the Social Store of São Brás de Alportel, with collaboration from all platform partners – local nucleus of Cáritas, Salvation Army, CCD – Center for Culture and Sports of Workers of the City Council and Parish Council and Santa Casa da Misericórdia of São Brás de Alportel.
These positive cases were identified yesterday on the island of Terceira and today on the island of São Miguel, respectively by the Specialized Service of Epidemiology and Molecular Biology of the Hospital de Santo Espírito da Ilha Terceira and by the Genetics and Molecular Pathology Unit of the Hospital do Divino Espírito Santo de Ponta Delgada.
In São Miguel, 32 new positive cases were registered in the municipality of Ponta Delgada, nine in the municipality of Ribeira Grande, nine in the municipality of Lagoa, six in the municipality of Povoação and one in the municipality of Vila Franca do Campo.
In January of next year, the vaccination of children against covid-19 starts in the Azores, the Regional Secretary for Health and Sports said today in Angra do Heroísmo.
As part of the fight against the pandemicalso announced that rapid antigen tests will now be available at the archipelago’s airports, for those who want to carry out screening on their return to the islands, regardless of the presentation of the digital vaccination certificate, or other documents required. Also, according to Clélio Meneses, the bureaucratic and administrative process of holding conventions with laboratories for carrying out rapid tests is in its final phase.
Nations across Europe moved to reimpose tougher measures to stem a new wave of Covid infections spurred by the highly transmissible Omicron variant, with the Netherlands leading the way by imposing a nationwide lockdown.
Prime Minister Jean Castex called on people to limit the size of holiday gatherings this Christmas during a news conference in a bid to curb rising “fifth wave” infections. Paris cancelled its New Year’s Eve fireworks.
Although omicron may be milder than other variants, this might “keep deaths low for two to three weeks, before the growth of the virus would eat up this advantage,” Lauterbach said, underlining that a difficult period ahead was “inevitable.” With an eye toward the approaching Christmas holiday, Lauterbach appealed to those traveling this holiday season to get tested frequently.
The new peak followed the 1,742 cases reported in New South Wales state on Thursday, which had topped the previous record set in September. The state government is using hospital admissions, particularly the number of patients in intensive care, as a gauge of the pandemic’s severity. There were 24 people in ICUs on Friday. New South Wales on Wednesday eased rules on mask-wearing and the need to provide proof of vaccination at some venues, allowing the unvaccinated to participate more fully in social events.
Currently only French or EU citizens will be allowed to enter France from the UK from Saturday. According to a list on the French Government website the only Britons allowed in are those with registered homes in France plus Transport workers and students. These new rules apply to both vaccinated and non-vaccinated people. Anyone able to make the journey from the UK are required to register prior to travelling on a digital platform to record their address in France where they will have to be isolated for 7 days. This isolation requirement may be lifted to 48 hours subject to being able to justify a negative PCR or TAG (antigen) test.
All persons arriving in Italy from any country mentioned above can enter Italy for non-essential purposes if they have not stayed in South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Eswatini and Malawi in the last 14 days before entering Italy.
“To those who were planning to travel, I say very clearly, now is not the time to travel,” the country’s health minister, Jean-Yves Duclos, said at a news conference on Wednesday afternoon. The advisory will be in effect for four weeks and will then be re-evaluated. The government also plans to increase testing at the border, Mr. Duclos said, and will provide more detail in future announcements.
As the Omicron variant moves around the world many places will start to close their borders; the situation can, as we have highlighted here, change rapidly. Anyone thinking of travelling over the Christmas period should always contact their airline or the Embassy of the country they are travelling to in advance to get the latest advice.
The schedule of Covid-19 vaccination for children (aged 5 to 11) has been published:
Song Oh, the Ambassador of the Republic of Korea in Portugal, was hosted by José Manuel Rodrigues (President of the Madeira Legislative Assembly) on December 2nd. This was the first visit of a Korean ambassador to the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The visit took place on the 60th year of diplomatic relations between Korea and Portugal. 
Azores Airlines will start connecting, from June 4th to October 28th, 2022, New York to the Azores, with connections on Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays, between Ponta Delgada and the North American city.
Nearly all the eligible population (except those 11 and under) have already been fully vaccinated and some have received the booster and flu vaccines. There are others, however, who still have no, or limited, protection against Covid-19, due to poor immune system for instance which is not capable to react to the vaccine stimulus.
The drug maker says, in a statement, that the conclusion about the drug’s effectiveness resulted from clinical trials involving more than 2,200 people, and supports what was announced in early November based on preliminary results.