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Overseas Situation Report Wednesday 25th August 2021

by Mike Evans

In this report we look at Australia and How the country went from being a Covid Free Paradise to a “mess” according to  Michael Toole, a professor at the Burnet Institute, a medical research center, said Michael Toole, a professor at the Burnet Institute, a medical research centre.

Since the start of the pandemic, all the eyes of the world have been looking at the countries in Oceania like New Zealand and Australia as the benchmark to handling the virus on a national basis. You would have forgiven Australians for feeling smug during much of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Early lockdowns combined with extremely strict border measures meant the coronavirus was effectively snuffed out, and, except for one state, the country had been largely Covid-free since mid-2020.

As case numbers and death tolls skyrocketed around the globe, the majority of Australians enjoyed near-normal lives, packing restaurants, beaches and festivals inside what was dubbed “fortress Australia.”

But then, in June, one case of the delta variant breached the fortress walls and started an outbreak that couldn’t be controlled. With the highly infectious variant now seeping around the country, more than half of Australia’s 25 million people are in lockdown, and a slow vaccination program has left many demanding to know what went wrong.

For a time, “we were in a bit of a Covid-free paradise,” said Michael Toole, a professor at the Burnet Institute, a medical research center. “And I think it led to a level of complacency, both within the government and among the public. … Now, it’s all a mess.”

At the start of the pandemic, Australia locked down its population and then slammed shut the borders, allowing only a trickle of people back in, with mandatory 14-day quarantine periods in repurposed hotels or government facilities. When Covid cases leaked, states used forensic contact tracing or quick lockdowns, or both to suppress the virus. Life would quickly return to normal. The big exception being Melbourne, which controlled only one outbreak with a 3½-month lockdown last year.

Then, in June, one case of the delta variant changed everything. An unvaccinated and unmasked driver in Sydney became infected after having transported international flight crews. Before long, the virus was spreading in his neighbourhood and beyond. Contact tracing and a Sydney-wide lockdown were used, but cases started to climb and then began popping up elsewhere around the country. Within weeks, almost all major cities had some sort of lockdown, with various levels of success in taming the virus.

Meanwhile, just a single delta case that originated in the Australian outbreak has also plunged the whole of neighbouring New Zealand into lockdown.

The lockdown in Sydney, which was supposed to be two weeks, is in its ninth week. In the hardest-hit areas of the city, army personnel have been deployed, and fines for breaking certain rules have risen to $3,700.

The state of New South Wales, of which Sydney is the capital, has gone from recording dozens of cases every day early in the outbreak to more than 800 cases and several deaths every day. While these numbers are  fairly small compared to many countries, Sydney has a population of around 5 million inhabitants, these figures were unthinkable in Australia just weeks ago.

“We have to accept that this is the worst situation New South Wales has been in since Day One,” New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian recently told reporters. “And it’s also, regrettably, because of that the worst situation Australia’s been in.” Or as the state’s chief health officer, Kerry Chant, put it earlier, the delta strain is “a game changer.”

Toole said the delta variant “is twice as infectious as earlier strains, so it’s obviously more challenging.”

Toole is part of a group of health experts calling for even harsher lockdown measures to contain the more infectious variant, particularly in the centre of the outbreak, Sydney, where case numbers keep rising, including closing far more businesses.

Meanwhile, Australia’s second-largest city, Melbourne, has fewer cases but a much stricter lockdown with a citywide curfew, closed playgrounds and more shuttered businesses. Even so, there are still dozens of new cases every day. Balancing health and economic priorities has proved a tightrope walk for leaders; economists say the latest rounds of lockdowns have cost around $12.5 billion.

While unemployment remains low, there is concern that continued lockdowns could push the country into its second recession of the pandemic. Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg predicted Thursday that the economy will contract by at least 2 percent in the September quarter.

A spokesperson for Australia’s health minister, Greg Hunt, told NBC News that “the delta variant of Covid-19 is a global challenge not just faced by Australia, but we continue to work together to meet this challenge head on.”

But making it all the more challenging is Australia’s vaccination rate, which is lagging behind the rates in many other comparable countries. Australia’s initial success meant it didn’t pursue vaccines with the urgency and strategy of some other countries, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison (now infamously) claimed it was “not a race.” The rollout started in February, with the locally made AstraZeneca vaccine as the main component, followed by limited supplies of the Pfizer vaccine from overseas.

It has since been marked by vaccine shortages and community confusion around the AstraZeneca vaccine. After it emerged that AstraZeneca’s vaccine had an extremely rare blood-clotting risk, local health authorities recommended that it be given only to people over age 60. But they backpedalled on the advice after the latest outbreak.

As a result of the early stumbles, 30 percent of Australians ages 16 and above have been fully vaccinated, compared to 62 percent in the U.S. ages 18 and above.

For much of the year, Australia had the lowest vaccination rate as a percentage of population in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and it is currently ranked 35th of 38 countries. And there is alarm as the latest outbreak is spreading to remote Aboriginal communities, where vaccination rates are particularly low.

Australia’s Aboriginal people were a priority group for vaccination, but in one remote area where delta is now present, only 8 percent of the population has been fully vaccinated. Despite the latest outbreak and the accompanying lockdowns, the world should still be envious of Australia. “This outbreak, we haven’t seen the massive levels of mortality and the collapse of health systems that have happened in other countries. So we’re still in a privileged position,” according to Archie Clements, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Curtin University.

Over the entire pandemic, there have been about 44,000 Covid-19 cases and just under 1,000 deaths in Australia. As an Island nation it is very difficult to compare “like for like” but if you take Sri Lanka, another Island nation with a slightly higher population, they have had just under 400,000 reported cases and 7,750 deaths.

As with all viruses, they evolve and change as this one has so while many feel we are seeing the end of the pandemic we must all be aware that the disease will never disappear completely so we will all have to learn to live with it. Until the next time Stay Safe.

Overseas Report Monday 23rd August 2021

by Mike Evans

In this report we are looking at how some parts of the world are coping with the increase in cases of the new Delta Variant and also at the situation regarding vaccines across the world.

We start with Canada, With Ontario seeing more than three straight weeks of growth in daily COVID-19 cases — primarily in people who have not been vaccinated — the province is “most definitely” in a fourth wave, says a top doctor with the government’s science advisory table.

And with the number of new cases currently doubling every 10 days, Dr. Peter Juni, scientific director of the science table, warns the province could see as many as 1,200 new cases per day by the time school resumes in less than a month. That’s up from a current average of just over 300. The States Capital, Toronto is in the early days of a fourth wave of COVID-19 fuelled by the Delta variant, and is certain to worsen this autumn, experts say after an almost fivefold jump in daily new infections over one month. The numbers of new cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions vary widely in different areas of the government’s data. The ministry said it’s due to different data collection and reporting processes. But in general, it shows that roughly 80 per cent of the cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions are in unvaccinated and partially vaccinated people.

The question on many officials’ minds is how to ensure the city’s high vaccination rate prevents hospitalizations and deaths from surging along with infections, especially among the legions of unvaccinated young schoolchildren headed back to classrooms.

Defences include continued mask rules and, if necessary, shutting schools and businesses to halt outbreaks, said Toronto infectious diseases expert Dr. Anna Banerji. But she said the best defence is vaccine mandates — a measure the Ontario government is so far rejecting.

More than 81 percent of eligible Ontarians have received at least one dose and nearly 72 per cent are fully vaccinated. Moore noted that Ontario is getting close to the thresholds it has set for moving past Step 3, and he expects those targets will be met in a week to 10 days.

Across the world to the country that was at the front when it came to early vaccination of its citizens. Israel, once a global leader in coronavirus containment, has one of the highest daily infection rates in the world.

Nearly one in every 150 people in Israel today has the virus. An average of nearly 7,500 people are infected per day — double the infection rate of two weeks ago. The new surge has Israeli leaders scrambling to bring back mask mandates and restrict gatherings as case rates come close to the worst days of last winter.

Globally, scientists are studying infection rates among Israel’s vaccinated to understand how the vaccine holds up over time. The findings have not been encouraging, setting off a wave of booster panic around the world. Nearly 80% of Israeli adults are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, which constitutes 58% of the country’s relatively young population, according to NPR. Over half of the population was fully vaccinated by March 25, and for a moment, it looked like the country was on its way to herd immunity.

But the rising case rates in Israel may indicate that the protection afforded by vaccines wanes over time. Health officials and Pfizer scientists noted a lapse in protection six to eight months after the second shot, which was timed right around the Delta variant’s arrival in Israel this summer. Half of the seriously ill COVID patients currently hospitalized in Israel were fully vaccinated five or more months ago. Most of them are over 60 years old and have comorbidities, putting them at a higher risk of developing severe illness. Along with renewed efforts to encourage mask-wearing and restrict gatherings, Israel is fighting back the virus by offering booster shots to older adults.

Israel rolled out its booster campaign at the start of August. Adults aged 60 and older who completed their vaccine course at least five months ago are now eligible for a third Pfizer-BioNTech shot. Israel’s move to begin offering boosters set off a wave of wealthy countries doing the same. The US, the UK, Germany, and France are all either prepared or approved to start rolling out booster shots in September. The vaccines are still effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death due to COVID-19 in most groups, so some experts argue it makes more sense to focus on vaccinating the unvaccinated.

To back up this drive for further vaccinations the authorities this week start a A national antibody survey among 3- to 12-year-olds is slated to kick off on Sunday in municipalities around the country, in a bid to measure the extent to which the coronavirus spread undetected among the country’s children over the past year and a half. The survey is a joint project of the Health Ministry, the Education Ministry and the IDF Home Front Command, with assistance from local authorities and educational institutions. Some 1,400 Home Front Command teams will conduct blood tests at locations around the country, in a bid to reach as many of Israel’s 1.4 million children as possible.

The test is conducted via a finger prick, and provides results within 15 minutes. Unlike previous antibody surveys, which were conducted to learn about asymptomatic infections within crowded communities, this one is supposed to have a concrete and immediate impact on those tested. The assumption is that many children were infected over the past year and a half but showed no symptoms, and therefore were never diagnosed.

Israel’s authorities hope that a significant proportion of children ages 3-12, who are not currently eligible for vaccination, will be found to have antibodies and will thus be eligible for a Green Pass, exempting them from mandatory isolation should they be exposed to someone COVID-positive, and from COVID-19 testing which is now mandatory in order to enter sites and attractions. They will be able to maintain their daily routine, including attending school, and will reduce the burden on the education and healthcare systems. According to data published by the Health Ministry, the number of serious cases increased by 45 and now stands at 666, including 150 in critical condition and 104 on ventilators. On Saturday, 1,467 new cases were recorded, with a positive test rate of 5.11 percent. The COVID-19 infection rate known as the R number – the average number of people each coronavirus carrier infects – dropped to 1.2 and eight people have died from the virus over the weekend.

Finally we turn to the situation regarding vaccines. The head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) called earlier this month for a moratorium on booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines so that those vaccines can be made available to countries that have only been able to inoculate a small proportion of their population.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters that although “hundreds of millions of people are still waiting for their first dose, some rich countries are moving towards booster doses” — a dose to be administered after a full vaccination course. Several countries including France, Germany, and Israel have started administering booster doses. Britain and the US are reportedly considering it as well.

“I understand the concern of all governments to protect their own people from the Delta variant. But we cannot accept countries that have already used most of the global supply of vaccines using even more of it, while the world’s most vulnerable remain protected,” he added. Dr. Tedros also stressed that of the more than 4 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered so far globally, more than 80% had gone to high- and upper-middle-income countries, which account for less than half of the global population.

According to WHO, high-income countries have now administered almost 100 doses for every 100 people, while low-income countries have only been able to administer 1.5 doses for every 100 people.

“We need an urgent reversal, from the majority of vaccines going to high-income countries, to the majority going to low-income countries,” he said. “Accordingly, WHO is calling for a moratorium on boosters until at least the end of September, to enable at least 10% of the population of every country to be vaccinated,” he went on.He highlighted that the world’s 20 biggest economies — collectively known as the G20 — have a “vital leadership role to play, as the countries that are the biggest producers, the biggest consumers and the biggest donors of COVID-19 vaccines.”

WHO officials say the science is unproven about whether giving booster shots to people who have already received two vaccine doses is effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus.

The WHO has been denouncing the unequal distribution of vaccine doses for months, criticising for instance, countries that have moved to offer the vaccine to all children above the age of 12, when lower-income countries have struggled to immunise their health care professionals.

The UN agency in May set the target of inoculating 10% of the population in every country by the end of September. The WHO chief said Wednesday that “we’re not on track” to reach the target.

The world has a long way to go yet to see the end of this crisis so until the next time Stay Safe.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-kicks-off-covid-antibody-testing-of-1-4-million-children-1.10138637https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#countrieshttps://www.euronews.com/2021/08/04/who-calls-for-covid-booster-jab-moratorium-to-accelerate-vaccination-in-poorer-countries

The Overseas Report  Friday 20th August 2021

By Mike Evans

Over the course of the pandemic there have been many conflicting reports that the Main stream media across the world have become mouth pieces for governments as they try to tackle the covid virus with some success and some failure. We can go back as far as 2016 before the pandemic hit the world to see that the term “Fake News” was becoming a regular part of the media reporting. This started when Donald Trump became President of the USA and it has seen a big increase across all the media in the time that the Pandemic has been around.

Whether you believe that the Mainstream media is “in the pockets “ of government or believe in an independent press there are many instances that show up the issues on both sides. The Covid virus has created the perfect conditions for a full scale war on the truth and across the world many politicians are using this to side with the lies.

It’s no surprise that a politician’s worst enemy is a vibrant news media. Journalists who stick their noses into the affairs of the powerful and expose their failures are a threat. It’s therefore no great shock that even many leaders of democratic countries are happier when the press is weakened.

The Covid-19 pandemic has presented a golden window to undermine confidence in the media and, in some cases, for world leaders to launch outright assaults on some of the most respected and important journalistic institutions in their countries.

Earlier this week, the Polish parliament passed a bill that could mean curtains for the country’s largest independent news channel. TVN24, a broadcaster that is frequently critical of the Polish governing party, is in part owned by the American media group Discovery. Should this new bill become law, non-EU entities will be prohibited from being majority shareholders in Polish media companies, meaning Discovery would have to sell its majority stake.

Also this week, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz put forward his plan that would effectively pull funding from the country’s oldest newspaper.

Wiener Zeitung is a state-owned newspaper and is funded by a model that requires the government to advertise jobs and make other formal announcements in its pages. Yet the paper has an independent editorial policy and has often criticized Kurz and his administration. Under the Chancellor’s plans, that funding would be gone and the paper’s main source of income taken away.

What’s shocking about these two incidents is that they are happening in democratic Western nations. While journalists elsewhere face risk of prosecution or even death threats, the fact this is happening in Europe and is part of a broader trend is seriously concerning for the media and citizens alike.

What has this got to do with coronavirus? Short answer: timing.

“In times of crisis trust in government goes up because people just want somebody to fix things, so you see people rally around the flag,” says Ben Page, chief executive of polling firm Ipsos MORI.

Page says these spikes in support provide a window of opportunity that “distracts from what you are doing elsewhere.” And if you are a politician seeking to capitalize on this, whacking and weakening the press is a relatively easy proposition. “I’m afraid journalism is one of the least-trusted professions all over the world,” he adds.

The reasons for public distrust in journalism are varied. “One of our biggest problems as professional journalists is that all over the world, we have been accused as being part of the system and establishment,” says Pierre Haski, president of Reporters Without Borders (RSF). “So as populist movements grow and rise up against the establishment, they rise up against us.”

Haski thinks that it isn’t just populist movements that present a danger, but also mainstream politicians who are losing voters to more extreme opposition.

He points specifically to an incident in 2018, when French President Emmanuel Macron reportedly said: “We have a press that is no longer pursuing the truth … What I see is the media power that wants to become a judicial power.” The comments came after a member of his security team was caught on camera attacking protesters while off duty.

“In one sentence he delegitimize all media and how we operate. It was eerily close to something Trump might have said,” says Haski.

Haski is, of course, correct to note incidents like this happening before the pandemic. What the coronavirus has provided is a moment in history when a decent chunk of the public is happy with governments behaving in a more authoritarian way, populist leadership is more appealing, accurate information is literally a case of life or death and journalists are not particularly liked.

“As soon as a government decides we are in a crisis and need unity, they can cut the ground under journalists whose job it is to get to the truth because they risk becoming the traitor who is driving the disunity,” says Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at Birmingham University.

And this is where the reference to Donald Trump comes to the fore.Even before winning the 2016 election, Trump made slamming the press a central prong of his campaign. And in the years that followed his victory, nearly every negative news story, negative approval rating and election loss was dismissed as “fake news.”

Trump’s attacks on the media intensified during the pandemic. He regularly accused it of overplaying the threat of the virus and seemed to live in a parallel universe when it came to the numbers and science. And when the most important person on the planet does something, others take notice.

According to Rob Mahoney, deputy executive director of the Committee to Protect Journalists. “Donald Trump gave a cue to leaders around the world that attacking the media was now fair game. When he launched attacks on the media (over their coverage) of his shambolic handling of the pandemic, the very moment the public needs as accurate information as possible, leaders in India, Brazil, the Philippines and Western Europe followed suit, denying the severity of the virus to cover their own failures,” he adds.

The question many are asking is what the long-term impact will be, now that going after journalists is routine in so many free, liberal countries.

The industry was already facing a lot of challenges. Proper news is expensive to make and the media landscape has shifted dramatically in ways that have not been easy for journalism.

Modern technology has made it easier for one person sitting at home to run a website that looks as legitimate as that of a centuries-old newspaper. This has created a world in which there is no longer a consensus on facts and a significant number of people are willing to believe things that are simply not true.

This lack of consensus puts journalists who speak truth to power on one side of a debate and lies on the other.

When you put all of this into the context of an unprecedented pandemic, it’s easy to see why the past 18 months have been an ideal time for leaders to pick a side.

And as we emerge from this crisis into whatever the new normal looks like, leaders who decided to side with lies will be remembered by everyone and, to some extent, will determine what that new normal is.

Until the next time Stay Safe.