Portugal Safety and Security Report Wednesday 9th July 2025
Good morning. We are often asked whether this year is likely to be a hot year. The answer is most likely “yes”. As we know in heatwaves the number and severity of rural fires increases as was seen recently here where between 28th and 30th June there were some 323 fires., several burning for sever hours and one or two overnight.
Climatologist Carlos da Câmara warns that the conditions are ripe for a summer of serious forest fires. The researcher from the Dom Luiz Institute, at the Faculty of Sciences at the University of Lisbon, stresses that, in the long term, “heat waves tend to be more frequent, more intense and with greater territorial extension”.
Carlos da Câmara explains that, “having had a very rainy spring, we now have very abundant low-lying vegetation that dries out very easily. In other words, there is a lot of material that is prone to burning”. Therefore, he warns, “if we have a very hot and dry summer, the soil will be deprived of water”.
“Therefore, a heat wave that, in humid soil conditions, would have a moderate impact, will have a much more exacerbated impact”, which is why “this is one of those years in which we could have forest fires or serious rural fires”, says the expert.
Following the generally above-normal air temperatures throughout the first half of 2025, the sea response around Europe is significant. Mediterranean seas are the most anomalous across central and western portions of the region, specifically across the western parts, with temperatures 5 to more than 6 °C warmer than usual. This puts June at record-breaking historic values. The most intense warming was observed in the western Mediterranean basin, including the Balearic and Tyrrhenian Seas where in absolute terms the temperatures from 27 °C to nearly 29 °C at some spots. Most of the Mediterranean is warmer than 25 °C right now. Which is similar to the maximum recorded off the south coast of Portugal in the Atlantic.
The further concern of the record warm sea waters is the support for potential impacts on severe weather and flooding events through late summer and autumn months. High moisture translates into higher temperature dew points, thus more convective energy to fuel thunderstorms in the coming weeks and months.
IPMA maps show that the north Atlantic is experiencing record high temperatures as well. Forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year, with above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures setting the stage. NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 70 km/h or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 115 km/h or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 170/km/h or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Of interest during the week is the Government approval of the national operational directive regarding the state of special readiness for entities forming part of the Integrated Protection and Relief Operations System (SIOPS). It is important that we are aware of the new directive as it shows the criteria upon which SIOPS form its state of readiness, based of forecast risk. The old system was colour coded, but the new system is more detailed in four levels. Then legislation in the form of a Resolution 3/2025, de 26 de maio, has been informally translated by Safe Communities and can be read here. https://diariodarepublica.pt/dr/detalhe/resolucao/3-2025-919368493
Two months into the 2025 Bathing Season, the National Maritime Authority recorded, between May 1st and June 30th, 208 rescues, 643 first aid actions and two fatalities on Portuguese beaches. Fatal accidents – 2 at Pedrogão Beach – Leiria, beach without lifeguards at the time of the accident (beach with lifeguards from June 7th to September 14th). Much of these are preventable and we ask people therefore to following beach warnings, respect the sea conditions and take rubbish with you when you leave
Our team wishes you a safe and happy week ahead.
News
There were 227 more deaths than expected on days of extreme heat
Due to the extreme heat, Portugal had 227 more deaths last week than would be expected for the time of year. The vast majority of deaths were of people over 70 years old.
Between June 30 and July 3, four days of extreme heat, 1,330 people died in Portugal, according to data from the Mortality Surveillance Porta, from the Directorate-General for Health (DGS).
The expected number of deaths, given the mortality rate in recent years, would be 1,103. However, 227 excess deaths were recorded in these four days. The number increases to 284 if we take into account the period from June 28, when the hot weather warning came into effect.
In a clarification sent to SIC, the DGS states that more than 70% of excess mortality concerns people aged 85 or over. “There was no excess mortality among those under 70 years of age, it assures.
“In the update of July 7, 2025, the Ícaro index for mainland Portugal – which estimates the impact of air temperatures on mortality – does not predict a significant impact of temperature on mortality for the following three days”, adds the DGS.
The exception is the Alentejo region. Therefore, the DGS reports, it is possible that there will be “a slight upward revision of the excess mortality values” currently estimated for mainland Portugal.
The Directorate-General for Health states that the impact of this episode of hot weather on excess mortality was “similar to that observed in previous years”.
According to data sent to SIC by the DGS, in 2024 (in the period between July 22 and August 4) there were 715 excess deaths – 19% more than expected – and in 2023 (from August 21 to 27), there were 384 excess deaths – which corresponded to 20% more than expected.
Heat broke record
Between June 30 and July 3, temperatures above 40ºC were recorded in several regions of the country. In the last month alone, there have been two heat waves in Portugal.
It was the third warmest June in the last 100 years and the highest temperature ever recorded for the month was 46.6ºC in Mora on the 29th.
The DGS recalls that it issued several recommendations to the population regarding protection against the heat and that it alerted health providers to the foreseeable impact of heat on the demand for health care, with contingency plans being activated.