The Overseas Situation Report Friday 1 April 2022

by Mike Evans

“We Continue to Be Vigilant”

Marek Belka

As we start the beginning of another month, and the current status regarding the Covid situation in Portugal continues until the end of the month at least, we are looking at the rise of the Omnicron Variant BA2 and how it is affecting more people across the world.

From the World Health Organisation, we have compiled the following report which gives an overview of what is happening up to the end of March. There is increasing concern amongst the officials at the WHO that many countries across the world are reducing their efforts to combat the virus.

Between the end of January and early March 2022, there was a decreasing trend in the number of new COVID-19 cases, which was followed by two consecutive weeks of increases in cases.

During the week of 21 through 27 March 2022, the number of new cases declined again with a 14% decrease as compared to the previous week. On the other hand, during the same period, the number of new weekly deaths increased by 43%, likely driven by changes in the definition of COVID-19 deaths in some countries in the Region of the Americas (Chile and the United States of America) and by retrospective adjustments reported from India in the South-East Asia Region.

Across the six WHO regions, over 10 million new cases and over 45 000 new deaths were reported. All regions reported decreasing trends in the number of new weekly cases and four regions reported a decreasing trend in new weekly deaths (Table 1). As of 27 March 2022, over 479 million confirmed cases and over 6 million deaths have been reported globally.

At the country level, the highest number of new weekly cases were reported from the Republic of Korea (2 442 195 new cases; -13%), Germany (1 576 261 new cases; +2%), Viet Nam (1 127 716 new cases; -40%), France (845 119 new cases; +45%), and Italy (503 932 new cases; +6%). The highest number of new weekly deaths were reported from Chile (11,858 new deaths; +1710%), the United States of America (5 367 new deaths; +83%), India (4 525 new deaths; +619%), the Russian Federation (2 859 new deaths; -22%), and the Republic of Korea (2 471 new deaths; +22%).

The trends reported above should be interpreted with caution as several countries are progressively changing their COVID-19 testing strategies, resulting in lower overall numbers of tests performed and consequently lower numbers of cases detected.

Despite a generalised decline in the rate of SARS-CoV-2 testing observed across the six WHO regions, the number of new weekly cases increased again in early to mid-March, indicating that the virus is currently circulating at very high levels. WHO is concerned about the recent significant reduction in SARS-CoV-2 testing by several Member States.

Data is becoming progressively less representative, less timely, and less robust. Decreases in testing, unless done judiciously as part of a strategy aimed at maintaining robust surveillance where it is most impactful, may affect the capacity of countries to identify cases and enable their timely treatment or isolation, and implement other necessary control measures, with the consequent risk of increased spread of SARS-CoV-2.

This may translate in an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, and significant strains on healthcare systems, particularly in areas where public health and social measures have been lifted and where vaccination coverage 3 against COVID-19 is low. Furthermore, reduced testing impacts the capacity of countries to detect emerging variants early, ultimately impairing response efforts. COVID-19 remains a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and it is too early to reduce the quality of surveillance.

Until we reach the end of the acute phase of the pandemic, countries must maintain sufficient epidemiologic surveillance to inform evidence-based operational decision-making on crucial parameters, including vaccination strategies, vaccine composition, use of therapeutics, and tailored and appropriate public health and social measures.

Based on available data of transmission, severity, reinfection, diagnostics, therapeutics and impacts of vaccines, the group reinforced that the BA.2 sublineage should continue to be considered a variant of concern and that it should remain classified as Omicron. The group emphasised that BA.2 should continue to be monitored as a distinct sublineage of Omicron by public health authorities.

BA.2 differs from BA.1 in its genetic sequence, including some amino acid differences in the spike protein and other proteins. Studies have shown that BA.2 has a growth advantage over BA.1.  Studies are ongoing to understand the reasons for this growth advantage, but initial data suggest that BA.2 appears inherently more transmissible than BA.1, which currently remains the most common Omicron sublineage reported.  This difference in transmissibility appears to be much smaller than, for example, the difference between BA.1 and Delta. Further, although BA.2 sequences are increasing in proportion relative to other Omicron sublineages (BA.1 and BA.1.1), there is still a reported decline in overall cases globally.

In the African Region, the decreasing trend observed since January 2022 continues, with over 24 000 new weekly cases reported, representing a 29% decrease as compared to the previous week. However, fourteen (29%) countries in the Region reported an increase of over 20% in cases, with some of the greatest proportional increases observed in Equatorial Guinea (101 vs 4 new cases; +2425%), Lesotho (105 vs 59 new cases; +78%), and Rwanda (71 vs 48 new cases; +48%).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from South Africa (8934 new cases; 15.1 new cases per 100 000 population; -9%), Réunion (8494 new cases; 948.7 new cases per 100 000; similar to the previous week’s figures), and Mauritius (2410 new cases; 189.5 new cases per 100 000; -77%).

The number of new weekly deaths in the Region decreased by 30% as compared to the previous week, with over 150 new deaths reported. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from South Africa (86 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000 population; -49%), Mauritius (34 new deaths; 2.7 new deaths per 100 000 population; similar to the previous week’s figures, and Réunion (13 new deaths; 1.5 new deaths per 100 000; +44%).

In the Region of the Americas there has been a decreasing trend since mid January 2022, with over 634 000 new weekly cases reported, corresponding to a 14% decrease as compared to the previous week. However, eleven (20%) countries in the Region reported increases in new cases of 20% or greater, with the greatest increases observed in the islands of Sint Eustatius (142 vs 13 new cases; +992%), Anguilla (39 vs 20 new cases; +95%) and Saint Pierre and Miquelon (577 vs 298 new cases; +94%).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Brazil (229 145 new cases; 107.8 new cases per 100 000; -15%), the United States of America (207 093 new cases; 62.6 new cases per 100 000; -6%), and Chile (61 337 new cases; 320.9 new cases per 100 000; -36%).

The Region reported over 20 000 new weekly deaths, a 182% increase as compared to the previous week, which was partly due to changes in the definition of COVID-19 deaths in Chile and in one state in the United States of America. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from Chile (11 858 new deaths; 62.0 new deaths per 100 000; +1710%), the United States of America (5367 new deaths; 1.6 new deaths per 100 000; +83%), and Brazil (1768 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; -21%).

In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, new weekly cases have continued to decline following a peak reached in early February 2022. Just over 50 000 new weekly cases were reported, a 32% decrease as compared to the previous week. However, two (9%) countries in the Region have reported increases in new cases of 20% or greater: Tunisia (3969 vs 534 new cases; +643%) and occupied Palestinian territory (1088 vs 718 new cases; +52%).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from the Islamic Republic of Iran (9572 new cases; 11.4 new cases per 100 000; -51%), Jordan (9135 new cases; 89.5 new cases per 100 000; -64%), and Bahrain (6527 new cases; 383.6 new cases per 100 000; -14%).

The number of new weekly deaths in the Region decreased by 22% when compared to the previous week, with just over 800 new deaths reported. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from the Islamic Republic of Iran (421 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; -41%), Tunisia (100 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; +426%), and Egypt (84 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; -20%).

The European Region reported over 5.2 million new weekly cases, representing a 4% decrease as compared to the previous week. Six (10%) countries in the Region reported increases in new cases of 20% or greater, with the largest observed in Israel (88 869 vs 47 796 new cases; +86%), Hungary (15 269 vs 9727 new cases; +57%) and Malta (2434 vs 1628 new cases; +50%).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Germany (1 576 261 new cases; 1895.3 new cases per 100 000; +2%), France (845 119 new cases; 1299.4 new cases per 100 000; +45%), and Italy (503 932 new cases; 844.9 new cases per 100 000; +6%).

The number of new deaths has continued to decrease in the Region, with over 11 000 new deaths reported this week, a 17% decrease as compared to the previous week. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from the Russian Federation (2859 new deaths; 2.0 new deaths per 100 000; -22%), Germany (1521 new deaths; 1.8 new deaths per 100 000; +13%), and Italy (1008 new deaths; 1.7 new deaths per 100 000; +11%).

The South-East Asia Region reported over 232 000 new weekly cases, a 14% decline as compared to the previous week, continuing the decreasing trend observed since mid-January 2022. However, Sri Lanka reported an increase in new weekly cases of 25% (2693 vs 2156 new cases).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from Thailand (175 116 new cases; 250.9 new cases per 100 000; +4% increase), Indonesia (36 470 new cases; 13.3 new cases per 100 000; -49%), and India (11 612 new cases; <1 new case per 100 000; -31%).

The Region reported just over 6000 new weekly deaths, representing a 116% increase as compared to the previous week. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from India (4525 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; +619%) due to retrospective adjustments in some states, followed by Indonesia (932 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; -41%), and Thailand (553 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; +3%).

With over 4.6 million new weekly cases, the Western Pacific Region reported a 24% decrease as compared to the previous week, reversing the increasing trend observed since the end of December 2021. Seven (23%) countries in the Region reported an increase of 20% or greater, with some of the largest increases observed in Vanuatu (1234 vs 352 new cases; +251%), Guam (487 vs 142 new cases; +243%) and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (16 037 vs 6449; +149%).

The highest numbers of new cases were reported from the Republic of Korea (2 442 195 new cases; 4763.5 new cases per 100 000; -13%), Viet Nam (1 127 716 new cases; 1158.5 new cases per 100 000; -40%), and Australia (368 028 new cases; 1443.3 new cases per 100 000; -28%).

The number of new weekly deaths shows a decrease of 5% as compared to the previous week, with just over 6600 new deaths reported. The highest numbers of new deaths were reported from the Republic of Korea (2471 new deaths; 4.8 new deaths per 100 000; +22%), China (1453 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; -24%), and the Philippines (861 new deaths; <1 new death per 100 000; +48%).

It is clear from these figures that the virus is continuing to affect all our lives and we must continue to make sure we all do everything possible to stop its spread. Until the next time Stay Safe.

Total Cases Worldwide – 487,718,978

Total Deaths Worldwide – 6,164,675

Total Recovered Worldwide – 422,743,595

Total Active Cases Worldwide – 58,810,708 (12 % of the total cases) 

Total Closed Cases Worldwide – 428,908,270

Information and Resources:

https://www.worldometer.info/coronavirus/

https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19—29-march-2022

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table