Portugal Safety and Security Report Wednesday 27th August 2025
Good afternoon. One of Portugal’s longest every heatwaves is now over, which facilitated the ignition and spread of a number of major fires in the centre and north of Portugal, resulting in a period of days in 4 deaths and around 200,000 hectares of burned land.
The fires started during a heatwave and due to the high temperatures, the extreme dryness of vegetation, bushes, leaves and shrubs, led to high intensity fires spreading very quickly and to a level well above the capacity of firefighters (on the ground and in the air) to suppress these. In the end the fires were only extinguished through an increase in humidity overnight which allowed fire fighters to take effective action.
An example is the Aganil fire which started on 13th August, spread to many municipalities and became Portugal’s largest fire in terms of area burned, 64,451 hectares of land. It is now in the conclusion stage with 378 operatives still deployed to deal with any re-ignitions. At its height, however, the deployment stood at some1700 operatives and 20 aircraft fighting the fires.
This scenario is one we have warned of many times, in this newsletter, as well as on social media and KissFM radio.
One of the most important elements of communication is clear and comprehensive situation reports which hopefully we at Safe Communities Portugal have been providing from many sources usually twice a day. Completely lacking at present is the total number of injuries from these fires even if these were only provisional at this stage
Although the current fires are considerable, they are nowhere near the number of the October fires of 2017, when at one stage around 500 fires were recorded in just one day! Also the death toll stands at four, nowhere near over the 100 in the two fires of 2017. Much of this is down to the lessons learned from 2017 including the excellent work conducted mainly by the GNR in undertaking timely evacuations.
Lastly we thank everyone one involved in tackling these fire: the Bombeiros, the GNR, Forrest Sappers, civil protection Special Forces, the Army, the pilots of the firefighting aircraft and all those involved in logistics and support such as the Red Cross, INEM etc.
From fires to rough seas
Today and in the coming days, extra care should be taken at beaches and sea fronts. According to the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA), waves of up to four meters in height are expected on the west coast on Tuesday. Authorities are urging the public to exercise extra caution, especially now, during the bathing season. Some beaches are completely closed to swimming. For example this is the case at Foz do Douro, where, in addition to raising a red flag, swimmers have ended up closing the entrance to the beach. Do not try and enter beaches that are closed – as they are closed for good reasons!
The Unidade Local de Saúde (ULS) of Leiria Region warned this Tuesday about the increased presence in Pombal of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) that transmits Zika and dengue and asked the population to adopt measures to prevent its spread.
Although no cases of diseases associated with this vector have been recorded in mainland Portugal, it is important to highlight that the tiger mosquito is a potential transmitter of viruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, causing painful bites and allergic reactions in sensitive individuals. One of the main preventive steps is to avoid prevention and control measures, which include eliminating stagnant water in flowerpots, tires, bottles, drains or other containers. Although this is aimed at Pombal, the advice also applies to any area where there are mosquitoes.
We wish you a good week ahead.
News
Spain has already mobilized 5,600 troops and 2,000 assets from the Armed Forces
Spain has already sent 5,600 military personnel and more than 2,000 air and ground resources from the Armed Forces to the fires this year, in an unprecedented mobilization in recent decades to combat the fires, the Government said today.
The autonomous regions, which are responsible for civil protection in Spain, have already asked the central government 41 times to activate the Military Emergency Unit (UME, a special force of the Armed Forces created 20 years ago that operates in disaster scenarios), said Defence Minister Margarita Robles at a hearing in the Senate (the upper house of the Spanish Cortes).
All requests were responded to, with resources from the UME and the rest of the Armed Forces, the minister assured, and emphasized that Spanish legislation only allows military personnel to act in these scenarios at the request of regional governments.
According to Margarita Robles, 5,600 personnel and more than 200 resources “of all types” – air, land and others – have already been mobilized to respond to an “unprecedented situation in August” in the country, due to the number of fires burning simultaneously and the “virulence” of the flames.
The minister also highlighted that in the wave of fires that has hit Spain since the beginning of the month, the work was carried out in an “absolutely coordinated” manner and “without controversy” between the “technical teams” of the autonomous communities and the military until August 15.
According to Margarita Robles, on that date, however, “surprisingly”, during the night, and after statements from the national leadership of the Popular Party (PP, right), the three regions most affected by the fires, all led by the PP (Galicia, Castile and León and Extremadura), sent new requests for resources in writing to the central government, “abstract” or in “incredible quantities” impossible to meet even using all the air resources available in the European Union’s civil protection mechanism.
“It’s as if there were no resources on the ground,” said the minister, who gave examples of assistance requested at that time by the regions from the military that were met and then never used or were only activated punctually or after several days.
Robles urged politicians, in a situation like the one Spain is facing with the fires, to let technicians and experts work and make decisions.
The minister of the Spanish government led by socialist Pedro Sánchez praised the military sent to the fires and also highlighted the praise for the “technical teams” and forestry brigades of the autonomous regions governed by the PP.
Without directly singling out regional governments, he also criticized the “lack of prevention and foresight” of some officials, stressing that the EMU can only respond as it has in recent weeks with “hard and adequate” preparation work throughout the year and investments in equipment and human resources.
AI model simulates current climate over periods of up to a thousand years in just 12 hours
The Deep Learning Earth System Model (DLESyM) runs on a single processor and performs a forecast in just 12 hours, while a state-of-the-art supercomputer would take approximately 90 days to do the same.
An artificial intelligence (AI) model can accurately simulate Earth’s current climate and interannual variability over periods of up to 1,000 years in just one day, according to a study released Tuesday by Europa Press.
The work of researchers at the University of Washington in the United States, released by the Spanish private news agency, was published in the scientific journal AGU Advances on Monday.
The Deep Learning Earth System Model (DLESyM) runs on a single processor and performs a forecast in just 12 hours, while a state-of-the-art supercomputer would take approximately 90 days to do the same.
“DLESyM simulations match or exceed key metrics of seasonal and interannual variability—such as tropical cyclogenesis across the range of observed intensities, the Indian summer monsoon cycle, and the climatology of mid-latitude blocking events—when compared with historical simulations from four leading models of the sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project,” notes the abstract that introduces the scientific paper.
“It worked very well”
The program combines two neural networks, one representing the atmosphere and the other the ocean, which had not previously been done in models powered solely by AI.
“We were the first to apply this framework to AI and found it worked very well,” said Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay, a graduate student in Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at the University of Washington and the paper’s lead author, as quoted by Europa Press.
The researcher is currently working to include a land surface model in DLESyM, the latest contribution from the group led by Dale Durran, professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences at the University of Washington and one of the first scientists to introduce AI into weather forecasting more than five years ago.
The researchers compared their predictions of past events with those of the four leading models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), all of which run on supercomputers and whose “future climate predictions were essential inputs to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”
DLESyM simulated tropical cyclones and the seasonal cycle of the Indian summer monsoon better than the CMIP6 models, and in the mid-latitudes, it captured the monthly and interannual variability of weather patterns at least as well as they did.
Neither model is 100% accurate, but the AI model also has the advantage of much lower power consumption.
“The quality of our results validates our model and increases our confidence in its future projections,” said Cresswell-Clay.
There is speculation whether or not Portugal will extend the State of Alert for the second time. It is currently due to expire on 13 the August at 23.59 hrs. However, the fire risk for the days ahead are not good with the fire risk forecast being particularly high at 90% of the mainland at very high or above. A decision will need to be reached today.
Tiago Oliveira, chairman of the agency’s board of directors, emphasized that, after 2023, the sense of urgency that politicians and society in general placed on fighting the fires has been deflated. “It’s essential that the country re-discuss what needs to be done,” he warned, noting that “the difficult things” remain to be done. “Politicians don’t want to discuss the Gordian knots” of the sector in the Assembly. Which ones? Changes to the inheritance system that perpetuates undivided inheritances and abandonment, the financing model for municipalities based on their forest area, or multi-year program contracts with forest producer organizations.