Recipe to minimize the impacts of a “blackout”

 

By Duarte Costa Former President of ANEPC

 

Let’s start from the beginning. We are never prepared for low-determinism, high-impact contingency situations, but planning and implementing well-worked and tested routines prevent wasting time, guide actions and, in crisis and catastrophe situations, save lives.

The situation that Portugal experienced this Monday cannot be called a crisis or anything like that, but for citizens who have become accustomed to living dependent on a set of resources and capabilities, the lack of one of them ends up creating disruptions where everyone complains and no one is right, not forgetting that the proximity of elections exacerbates the desire to take advantage of what happened, both positively and negatively. And seeing this from the outside, as is my case now, ends up providing me with the necessary distance to analyse the model of action in a situation like this.

Let’s be pragmatic and leave value judgments to those who seek causes and not solutions. Personally, I prefer solutions.

Portugal has an organized response structure that, when used under the correct conditions as per the legislation, allows us to avoid deviations in the response and the consequent loss of time. Thus, in a situation like the one that occurred or a similar one, there are 4 fundamental actions foreseen in our organization as a State. Namely:

1. Immediately convene the National Security Office in order to understand how what is happening may impact the protection profiles to be applied to infrastructures, especially those that are critical.
2. Convene the Higher Council for Internal Security, which operates within the scope of the Internal Security System (SSI) and assists the Prime Minister and the Government (which has members present) in the exercise of their powers in the area of ​​internal security, namely in adopting the necessary measures in situations of serious threat to internal security (it worked excellently during the World Youth Days and would be a way of integrating all the information and operational conduct of all security and civil protection agents and forces).
3. Immediately hear the President of the National Council for Civil Emergency Planning, to assess what was done previously to safeguard the continuity of institutional normality (The National Civil Emergency Planning System, created by Decree-Law No. 43/2020, of July 21, aims to guarantee the organization and preparation of the strategic sectors of the State to face crisis situations, with the aim of ensuring, in particular, the freedom and continuity of government action, the regular functioning of essential State services and the safety and well-being of the population. This President is inherently the President of the National Emergency and Civil Protection Authority (ANEPC) and participates in the meeting of the Superior Council for Internal Security, mentioned in the previous point, hence the relevance of the SSI in this response system).
4. Within the scope of the Internal Security System, promote only one single point of institutional communication in order to maintain the connection with the Government, coordinate the communication manoeuvre, and avoid alarmism and misinformation.

All four of these actions can and should be carried out simultaneously, and actions 2, 3 and 4 have already been tested (with excellent results) and trained during the organization of the World Youth Days. The key word is “coordination”, which avoids scattered, inconsequential manoeuvres that waste resources and can generate confusion and chaos.

 

From this point on, it is a matter of conduct and contingency, and everything must be managed, at this level of crisis, by the Secretary General of the SSI and with the presence of those responsible for the institutions mentioned above and others that may become necessary. Always bear in mind that more serious crises may require another type of decision-making process.

In terms of government action and for this specific case that occurred this Monday, it is important to highlight the following aspects that help to minimize the impacts of what happened:

1. Activate the Energy Emergency Plan and declare a state of energy emergency if the crisis continues, or if it has a major initial disruptive impact, while simultaneously prioritizing essential sectors: hospitals, public safety, communications, water supply, civil protection.
2. Provide transparent, centralized and frequent communication, informing the population immediately about the situation, explaining, if possible, the causes, expected duration, and above all what is being done to maintain normality. Above all, disseminate clear instructions for responsible energy use.
3. Mobilize emergency power sources, activating available power stations that can be quickly operationalized and informing people of their availability in case of need, in order to reassure people. Also use emergency generators in hospitals, public transport and logistics centers (which must be tested in normal times and subject to fines if this is not observed).
4. Ensure strategic reserves of diesel, natural gas and gasoline for essential services and, if necessary, control and prioritize the sale of fuels.
5. Support the vulnerable population, creating Population Concentration and Support Zones (ZCAP), support centers for people without access to energy, especially the elderly, the sick and vulnerable families (ANEPC already has a long history and experience in creating emergency ZCAP, with guaranteed food, water and shelter, especially in the event of a worsening crisis).

 

6. Prepare for the restoration and safeguard against future crises, immediately initiating a critical analysis of the electrical infrastructure through the CNPCE and investing in strengthening the electrical grid, energy storage and redundancy of energy dependence (for a country that occupies the westernmost tip of the European continent, this redundancy must be a strategic objective of the Portuguese State).

 

If everything mentioned above is done, will the crisis situation be resolved? Of course not, but the impact on people will be largely minimized, and that is what we should strive for as civil servants, that is, to serve the people. And when we serve the people in general, we are also serving the State. And because, at the end of the day, it is the people who pay for the State.

 

Former president of ANEPC