RISK ASSESSMENT ISSUED BY THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL (EDEC) 26TH JANUARY
The following risk assessment has been issued by the EDEC cautioning that “there are considerable uncertainties in assessing the risk of this event, due to lack of detailed epidemiological analyses”.
On the basis of the information currently available, ECDC considers that:
- “the potential impact of 2019-nCoV outbreaks is HIGH;
- further global spread is LIKELY;
- there is currently a MODERATE likelihood of infection for EU/EEA citizens residing in or visiting Wuhan, Hubei province, China;
- there is a HIGH likelihood of further case importation into countries with the greatest volume of people who have travelled from Wuhan, Hubei Province (i.e. countries in Asia);
- there is a MODERATE likelihood of further case importation into EU/EEA countries;
- adherence to appropriate infection prevention and control practices, particularly in healthcare settings in EU/EEA countries with direct links to Hubei, means that the likelihood of a case detected in the EU resulting in secondary cases within the EU/EEA is LOW;
- the impact of the late detection of an imported case in an EU/EEA country without the application of appropriate infection prevention and control measures would be HIGH, therefore in such a scenario the risk of secondary transmission in the community setting is estimated to be VERY HIGH”.